O
Occam's Investing
101 Beginner · Education Series

Forensic Financial Analysis for Value Investors

Teaching students to use Perplexity as a research co-pilot — without surrendering judgment to the machine.

Instructor: John Gillespie
Tool: Perplexity
Format: Live class + slides
Level: Beginner
Live class recording · published 2026-06-06 Watch on YouTube →  ·  Download slides (PDF)

What you will learn

Six pillars. Each one builds the next. By the end you can run a real ticker from filing pull to written thesis in under an hour.

Section 1

The Forensic Mindset

Why reported profit and cash burn can disagree by billions in the same 10-K, and why the cash flow statement is the truth-teller. Three ways earnings get inflated without breaking accounting rules.

Section 2

Your Research Co-Pilot

Where Perplexity wins and where you still own the call. Three prompt patterns that return forensic signal instead of marketing copy — plus five worked story prompts you can run today.

Section 3

The Cash Flow Truth Test

The Divergence Razor: when net income and operating cash flow tell different stories, somebody is making a choice. The cash flow statement always wins.

Section 4

Quality Screens

The Cash-Based Rule of 40 and the Zombie Death Clock. Two scoring frames that tell you whether the growth is real and whether the balance sheet survives a credit shock.

Section 5

Sector-Adjusted Valuation

Seven business types, seven models. Applying a SaaS DCF to a REIT is malpractice. Match the model to the business: REIT FFO, BDC NII, bank ROTCE, pipeline DCF/unit, and more.

Section 6

Ticker to Thesis in 60 Minutes

The sequenced workflow. Each step assumes the previous one passed. Write the thesis before you check the price — because anchoring is the silent killer of independent judgment.

Section 1 · The Forensic Mindset

Both numbers are true. Only one tells you whether to invest.

Most retail investors read the income statement and stop. They never reconcile reported earnings against the cash flow statement, and they never read the footnotes that explain the gap. Forensic analysis is the discipline of reading all three — and treating the cash flow statement as the truth-teller.

The three lies of GAAP earnings

Reported profit can be inflated three ways without breaking a single accounting rule. Your job is to find which lie is hiding in this filing.

01

Non-cash "one-time" charges

Stock-based comp, restructuring, and impairments quietly rebuilt every year. If they recur, they are operating expenses — no matter what the press release calls them.

02

Working capital traps

Earnings rise while receivables balloon and payables get stretched. Cash has not moved — but the income statement says it did. The balance sheet keeps the receipts.

03

Aggressive recognition

Channel stuffing, percent-of-completion games, capitalized costs that should have been expensed. The 10-K never lies — it just tells the truth in the footnote nobody reads.

Section 2 · Your Research Co-Pilot

Where Perplexity wins. Where you don't.

Perplexity is the best research analyst you have ever hired. It is not — and will never be — your portfolio manager.

Where Perplexity wins
  • Synthesizing 200-page 10-Ks down to the five things that matter
  • Surfacing risk-language changes between filings
  • Comparing peer disclosures side-by-side
  • Pulling the footnote you would otherwise miss
  • Finding the analyst dissent buried in earnings calls
What you still own
  • The math — verify every number it cites
  • The judgment — is the divergence benign or terminal?
  • The sector logic — what multiple even applies?
  • The thesis — written before you check the price
  • The risk of being wrong, and the discipline to size for it

Three prompt patterns that work

"Tell me about Apple" returns marketing copy. These three patterns return forensic signal.

Pattern 01 · Disclosure diff — hunt for what changed when nobody was looking
Compare the Risk Factors section in {COMPANY}'s last three 10-Ks. Identify every risk that was added, removed, softened, or strengthened. Quote the before-and-after language.
Pattern 02 · Footnote hunter — pull the disclosures management buried
From {COMPANY}'s most recent 10-K, find every footnote referencing {revenue recognition / capitalized costs / contingent liabilities}. Summarize each, quote the exact language, and explain how it affects reported earnings.
Pattern 03 · Peer triangulation — make the outlier name itself
Compare how {COMPANY}, {PEER 1}, and {PEER 2} disclose {segment data / debt covenants / customer concentration}. Which company's disclosure is the most aggressive or least transparent, and why?
Section 3 · The Cash Flow Truth Test

The Divergence Razor

Net income, operating cash flow, and free cash flow should tell roughly the same story. When they diverge, somebody is making a choice — and the cash flow statement always wins.

Net Income

What the income statement says you earned

Subject to accruals, capitalization, and judgment.

Operating Cash Flow

What actually moved through the bank

Strips out non-cash items but still includes working capital.

Free Cash Flow

OCF minus capex

The number that pays dividends, retires debt, and buys back shares.

The Razor | Net Income − OCF | / | Net Income | > 25%   →   flag for forensic review

Worked example: three prompts, twenty minutes

Company X reports $500M net income on $180M operating cash flow. Razor = 64%. The income statement and cash flow statement disagree by two-thirds. Now you ask Perplexity:

Q1 · Working capital
In Company X's most recent 10-K, identify every working capital movement and explain what is driving the gap between net income and operating cash flow. Quote the relevant footnote language.
Q2 · Receivables vs revenue
Has accounts receivable grown faster than revenue over the past 3 years? If so, by how much, and what does management say about collection terms?
Q3 · Stock-based comp trend
Show stock-based compensation as a percentage of operating cash flow over the last 5 years for Company X. If the trend is rising, what does that imply about the quality of reported earnings?
Section 4 · Quality Screens

The Cash-Based Rule of 40

Most investors use Revenue Growth + EBITDA margin. EBITDA is a fiction. We use OCF margin instead — because cash either showed up or it did not.

The Rule Rule of 40 (Cash)  =  Revenue Growth %  +  Operating Cash Flow Margin %
ScoreStatusWhat it means
≥ 40HealthyGrowth that is not being faked. Cash supports the story.
20 – 40WatchlistGrowth slowing, or cash conversion weakening. Read the next quarter carefully.
< 20Cash-stressedRegardless of headline EPS, this business is consuming more than it produces.

The Zombie Death Clock

A zombie company is one whose interest expense exceeds its operating cash flow. It survives only by refinancing — which works until rates rise or credit tightens. Then it does not.

The Clock Operating Cash Flow  ÷  Interest Expense
OCF / InterestStatusWhat it means
> 5×HealthyCoverage comfortable — interest is a small claim on cash.
2 – 5×WatchCoverage tightening — small operational shock could compress further.
1 – 2×Zombie territoryCash barely covers debt service. Equity holders are the residual claimants on a thin sliver.
< 1×Walking deadOCF cannot cover interest. Survival depends on capital markets staying open.
Section 5 · Sector-Adjusted Valuation

Match the model to the business

Applying a SaaS DCF to a REIT is malpractice. A REIT FFO multiple will not tell you anything useful about a bank. Seven businesses, seven models.

01 · Standard DCF

Operating businesses with stable cash flow

WACC, FCF, terminal growth.

02 · REIT

Real estate — depreciation distorts GAAP earnings

FFO, AFFO, NAV per share.

03 · BDC

Business development companies

NAV, NII, dividend coverage.

04 · Bank

Banks and consumer lenders

TBV, NIM, efficiency, ROTCE.

05 · Pipeline / MLP

Energy infrastructure — yield-driven

DCF per unit, coverage, leverage.

06 · Cyclicals

Commodities, autos, semiconductors

Normalized EPS, mid-cycle multiple.

07 · Insurance

P&C and life insurers

Book value, combined ratio.

Section 6 · The Workflow

Ticker to Thesis in 60 Minutes

The discipline is not speed. It is sequence. Each step assumes the previous one passed.

00 – 05

Pull the 10-K

Perplexity: "Summarize {ticker}'s most recent 10-K in five paragraphs — business, segments, risks, capital structure, recent changes."

05 – 15

Cash truth test

Run the Divergence Razor. If | NI − OCF | / | NI | > 25%, ask Perplexity to explain the gap before going further.

15 – 25

Quality screens

Compute Cash Rule of 40. Compute the Zombie Death Clock. Either one in red? Note it before you fall in love with the story.

25 – 40

Sector valuation

Apply the model that matches the business. Triangulate against two peers. Sanity-check Perplexity's inputs against the actual filing.

40 – 50

Read the footnotes

Hunt the disclosures Perplexity flagged. The footnote you skip is the one the loss is hiding in.

50 – 60

Write the thesis FIRST

Write your thesis before checking the price. Anchoring is the silent killer of independent judgment.

Follow the cash. Not the noise.

The numbers do not lie. The narratives do. AI just makes the work tractable.