monday.com Ltd.
March 16, 2026 · Technology
Intrinsic
$166.37
Market
$74.29
Margin of Safety
55.35%
Data: SEC XBRL filings · Live market data · Damodaran risk premiums · March 2026
01 / DCF Intrinsic Value
Discounted Cash Flow
UNDERVALUEDIntrinsic Value
$166.37
Market Price
$74.29
Margin of Safety
55.35%
Confidence
HIGH
Key Assumptions
WACC
12.51%
Beta: 1.20 (adj)
Growth Rate
31.0%
S2: 8.0% → Term: 3.0%
Occam Score
ELITE · 85/100
R40: 53.8
Conflict Check
None
Models aligned
Bias Check
GROWTH_EXCEEDS_3X_GDP: Using 31.0% Stage 1 growth rate. Warrants careful monitoring.
AI Valuation Narrative
monday.com presents a compelling DCF case at current prices. With trailing free cash flow of $313M growing at 26.7% annually, the company's cash generation significantly exceeds what the market price implies. Our 10-year DCF model, using a WACC of 12.51% (reflecting MNDY's moderate beta of 1.20 and current equity risk premiums), yields an intrinsic value of $166.37 per share — a 55% margin of safety against the current market price of $74.29.
The growth assumptions are well-supported: monday.com's Rule of 40 score of 53.8 places it in elite territory, combining strong revenue growth (26.7%) with healthy operating cash flow margins (27.1%). The stage-one growth rate of 31% is aggressive but backed by analyst consensus and the company's track record of consistently exceeding estimates. Terminal value represents 45.8% of enterprise value — within acceptable bounds, suggesting the model isn't overly dependent on far-future assumptions.
02 / Occam's Forensic Score
Operational Quality Analysis
ELITERule of 40
53.8
Revenue Growth
+26.7%
OCF Margin
27.1%
Classification
ELITE
The Occam Score evaluates operational efficiency using the Rule of 40 framework. A score above 40 indicates a healthy balance of growth and profitability. MNDY's score of 53.8 — combining 26.7% revenue growth with 27.1% operating cash flow margin — places it in the ELITE tier, reserved for companies demonstrating both rapid growth and strong cash conversion.
03 / Peer Comparison
Relative Valuation
FAIRValuation Composite
55th
percentile
Quality Composite
0th
percentile
Peers Compared
5
companies
Note: MNDY trades in line with peers on valuation metrics. Warning: Negative ROIC (negative return on invested capital).
Peer Metrics
| Ticker | P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | ROE | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNDY * | 32.4 | 3.08 | 36.1 | 12.0 | 9.9% | -0.1% |
| PAYC | 15.0 | 3.91 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 26.1% | 18.4% |
| IDCC | 22.7 | 8.37 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 38.5% | 29.2% |
| PEGA | 18.5 | 9.25 | 23.2 | 14.8 | 60.1% | 28.9% |
| MANH | 38.5 | 26.9 | 28.2 | 22.8 | 76.6% | 56.1% |
| OTEX | 12.9 | 1.39 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 10.9% | 7.9% |
Percentile Ranks (higher = more expensive or higher quality)
Three Lenses. One Picture.
monday.com is a genuine growth engine — the DCF model reveals significant undervaluation with a 55% margin of safety, and the Occam Score confirms elite operational quality. But the peer comparison tells a more nuanced story: while the stock isn't overvalued on every metric, its return on invested capital ranks dead last among peers, and its EV/EBITDA sits at the 100th percentile. The market is pricing in perfection on enterprise value, while actual capital efficiency lags significantly behind competitors like PAYC, PEGA, and MANH. This is exactly the kind of contradiction that single-model analysis misses.
This is what one valuation looks like.
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